During Dwight Eisenhower’s last years in office, one of his two top aides died; the other left Washington in disgrace. Ronald Reagan’s sixth year was mired in Iran-Contra; in their sixth years, Richard Nixon resigned and Bill Clinton was impeached.

Political scientists call it the "sixth-year curse," or the "second-term curse" and while that may sound melodramatic, many second-term presidents have discovered that they lacked time — or political mojo — to initiate or even complete bold policy initiatives. In other words, modern political history suggests that the presidency of George W. Bush is winding down, particularly when it comes to domestic policy.

Getting a grip: In a sign of Washington's partisan
division, House minority leader, Nancy Pelosi
promised to "drain the swamp" if the Democrats
regain the majority.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Berkeley experts agree that this does not mean that the nation’s challenges are lessening—but presidential torpor during the next two years means that today’s presidential "to do" list likely will be inherited by the incoming administration. And so the question becomes: What domestic business remains undone? And how can the gridlock that paralyzes our political system and leaves so much of the nation’s business unfinished be broken so that real problems are addressed?

A government that governs

Problem: After the defeat of President Clinton’s universal health care initiative, Harvard president Derek Bok wrote that this failure "seemed to epitomize the breakdown in government that many Americans feared." This trend continued through the Bush years as the two major political parties carved the United States into "red" and "blue" states and acrimonious political campaigns made it difficult in Washington — and in state capitals — to come together and actually govern. The reasons for this dysfunction are legion: a great "sorting" of Democrats and Republicans into liberal and conservative parties more along the lines of the British model; and the separation of Americans into self-filtering people who worship, pay attention to marketing pitches, watch television, listen loyally to talk radio, get their news customized from like-minded sources, and live in communities of their own kind.

Politics: The two major parties treat every election as though it were Armageddon, the upshot being that candidates and their handlers will say or do nearly anything to win. Meanwhile, congressional districts are so gerrymandered that moderates in each party are squeezed out of the process and only a handful of districts are even competitive. A winner-take-all mentality in judicial appointments has eroded confidence in the courts. Members of Congress do not speak to one another, let alone socialize or, more to the point, compromise.

Solution: When he returned in 1995 for his second stint as a congressman from Northern California, moderate Republican Tom Campbell (now dean of Berkeley’s Haas School of Business) proposed a simple reform designed to give centrists a greater role in Congress: Have all committee members — instead of just those in the top ranks — choose their chairperson. It was a sensible suggestion, but Campbell was too far ahead of his time.

Norman Mineta, whom Campbell replaced in Congress, was asked recently as he left George W. Bush’s cabinet what he’d do if he could magically accomplish one thing to change the way politics is practiced, Mineta, who served as transportation secretary and was the only Democrat in the cabinet, responded: "Restore civility into the political quotient."

If the 2003 recall of California Governor Gray Davis is emblematic of the problem — excessive partisanship — it also may be said that the installation of Arnold Schwarzenegger was part of the solution. Californians paradoxically view Governor Schwarzenegger as an icon but also as a citizen-politician who could govern broadly — and voters turned on him when he appeared to behave otherwise.

"One person, even in the White House, cannot unite the whole country," says Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain. "But there are people who have figured out how to reach across to the other side, to get enough of the independents and moderates in the other party to build a working coalition in the middle."

Indeed, an inspiration for any incoming president might be the image of Schwarzenegger, a Republican, sharing the limelight with Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, a Democrat and co-chair of the campaign of Schwarzenegger’s opponent in the gubernatorial race, following the governor’s signing in September of the most sweeping global warming legislation in the nation — a law hailed nationally and internationally — that was co-sponsored by Nuñez.

Demonstrating the ability to govern broadly should be the key attribute of any aspiring president. But remember, then Governor George W. Bush ran for president on his ability to tame the Texas legislature. So maybe it will take a broad issue — global warming, health care, national security — to demand that the next president govern more broadly than his or her predecessors.

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